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What Will the Election Results Mean for the Markets?
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The news cycle is certainly heating up. On Friday, it was announced that the President and First Lady have contracted the Coronavirus. Markets retreated on the news. The markets were up on Monday on the news that Trump would be able to leave the hospital soon. Markets have fluctuated largely in both directions over Tuesday and Wednesday as Trump and congress play congress playing a “will they, won’t they” with a stimulus package. With the election around the corner, we would expect volatility remain high, and markets to fluctuate in both directions.
Speaking of elections, it seems like every investor wants to know what will happen to the markets depending the November election results. You can find several polls and articles online detailing what media pundits expect to happen to US markets if Trump or Biden win. They will use statistics and inferences to make predictions, and probably have some dialog saying that “markets have averaged X% following a Democrat being elected, and Y% following a Republican election.” These statistics are seldom correct in predicting what will happen.
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