Happy Thanksgiving!

Happy Thanksgiving!

Posted on November 23, 2011

The Bear market continues. The S&P 500 has declined -9.55% from 10/27 through 11/23 (19 days). The recent decline has had very little, if any, effect on our portfolios.

Our Canterbury Portfolio Thermostat Matrix, shifted to Bearish (Market State 12*) on 8/4/11 and has continued to remain Bearish.

Currently the market is oversold, meaning it has dropped so fast that a “Bear market rally” is probable. Any such rally, if it occurs, will probably be measured in days and should be followed by further decline.

We will continue to focus on portfolio stability. We will continue to maintain our current defensive holdings until we return to one of our six Bullish Market States.


*S&P 500 Market States (market environments)

Market State 12 = Bearish: 8/04/11 through 10/20/11
Market State 11 = Bearish: 10/21/11 through 11/08/11
Market State 12 = Bearish: 11/09/11 through 11/21/11
Market State 10 = Bearish: 11/22/11 through today

Canterbury Volatility Index (CVI) 144 = Caution

The Canterbury Portfolio Thermostat identifies 12 different Market States. Of the 12 Market States, 6 are Bullish Market States, 4 States are Bearish, and 2 States tend to precede a transition to a Bearish Market State, meaning caution.

Please call me for a detailed description of the Portfolio Thermostat Matrix.

Every effort was used to provide accurate data and mathematical calculations to provide, what we believe to be, accurate results. Canterbury Investment Management, LLC, and its principal owners, make no guarantee of completeness or accuracy of data or calculations as well as conclusions of any statistical data or information contained in the simulation illustrated on this page. Past results or performance is in no way a guarantee of future results.

Canterbury Investment Management: Tom Hardin

More About Tom Hardin

As Chief Investment Officer, Tom Hardin, Chartered Market Technician (CMT), makes all the final decisions on all investment and portfolio management decisions for Canterbury Investment Management. Tom has more than 30 years experience in the investment management industry and has broad breadth of knowledge. He is known as an innovator, educator and been revolutionary in the advancements in portfolio and risk management.